Deconstructing the “Rosenfeld Curve”

Since the ear ly 1970s, e lectr ic i ty consumption per capi ta in Cal ifornia has s tayed near ly constant , while r is ing s teadi ly for the United States as a whole. In the context of global energy policy making today, where both c l imate and energy secur i ty concerns p lay an increasingly large ro le , i t is important to understand the factors behind California’s success in s tabi l iz ing electr ic i ty consumption. In th is paper we use empir ical data to est imate the fract ion of the d ifference between California and the United States owing to pol icy independent character is t ics such as c l imate or demographics , and the fract ion that may be due to pol icy measures aimed at saving energy. We analyze both recent and his tor ical data . For 2001, we f ind that up to about 23% of the overal l d ifference between California and the United Sta tes could be due to pol icy measures, the remainder being explained by var ious s t ructural factors .